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Nature Society

Delta foxtrot

A couple of weeks ago I WhatsApp-ed a few of my diehard virus-obsessed friends to ask them: “Why is the UK so crap at Covid?”

After all, we’re at the forefront of the world when it comes to vaccinations.

And we’d been stuck in some form of lockdown longer than most countries, too – with restrictions just extended again beyond 19 June.

Yet it already seemed we were on the cusp of a third (fourth? fifth?) wave of Covid.

I’d been concerned enough by the numbers to move my second jab forward by five weeks.

Better to look silly than sorry.

Case studies

That new-wave thesis has since been borne out in the curves:

We’re on the up and up again (Source: World in Data)

Our long lockdown over winter and into spring – plus the hugely successful vaccine rollout – had flattened the last wave by mid-May.

And yet here we are rising again as other countries flatline.

Various theories were put forward by my friends, from weaker guidance adherence at home (allegedly) to tougher restrictions abroad (supposedly).

I don’t buy any of that. To me this is clearly the Delta variant at work.

Always the sick man of Europe

In the past week the rest of the world seems to have woken up to the threat of Delta – or at least the stock markets have.

Yet we’re also hearing the same stuff we’ve heard throughout the pandemic as to why Delta won’t spread across Europe, or surge in the US.

Apparently it’s a British thing because it’s – um – currently in Britain? Yeah we’ve seen that movie before.

The one constant in this pandemic has been wishful thinking, and I’m finally immune to that.

It’s very likely that all those countries in the graphs above will see a resurgence of Covid over the next few weeks. Poorer countries with few vaccinations will be hit worse.

Israel, the other super-vaccinated country, has also seen cases rise in the past fortnight, incidentally.

Of course the pandemic has made us all look silly at one time or another. For instance while I definitely acknowledged the threat in March 2020, I didn’t believe the virus would prove so enduring.

I also feared the economic impact of lockdowns would be far more visible – mostly because I couldn’t have imagined the level of emergency government support and intervention we’ve seen, even in the US.

So perhaps I’m wrong and Delta’s proliferation in the UK is down to some particularly unfortunate set of circumstances here.

Oh, and – um – in India.

Yeah, perhaps not.

Deaths down despite Delta

Happily there is one good bit of good news, and it isn’t wishful thinking.

By and large vaccinations do stop you going to hospital with Covid, let alone dying.

There’s some lag in the data as always (because deaths don’t happen for a bit) but this UK Delta wave isn’t killing as many so far:

(Source: Our World in Data)

True, it’s sobering to think that 15 deaths a day would have been seen as terrible news in January 2020 – and to remember that every death is someone’s lost life and the loss of a loved one.

But deaths were running as high as 1,200 a day in early 2021. We’re in a far better spot right now.

Cases aren’t anything like as high as early 2021 yet, so more deaths will surely follow.

But a crude extrapolation might put us at about 150-200 deaths a day if things got so bad as January 2021.

(And they shouldn’t get so bad, given that more than 80% of people have been vaccinated. Vaccinations must act as some sort of transmission firewall, however imperfect.)

Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks determined to fully re-open the economy, despite Delta. In PMQs today he even used the unofficial term ‘Freedom Day’ for the rescheduled end of restrictions on 19 July.

So it seems we will finally see what “letting it rip” looks like.

Probably a lot of us getting Covid as it becomes a perpetual low-level irritant.

But hopefully not much more dying.

Clearly we can’t keep hiding from the virus forever.

And after the vaccines there’s arguably nothing else left to wait for – except perhaps even better vaccines.

On the other hand, the rest of the world is about to go through Delta. Brewing-up new variants while doing so.

This isn’t over until it’s over – everywhere.

Categories
Nature

Watch the birdies

Wheatfield with Crows, by another bird watcher – Vincent Van Gogh

I’m lucky enough to have a garden that’s frequented by birds. There are lots of trees around, and the area seems to under-index for cats. I very rarely see the super-efficient micro-predators, compared to previous places I’ve lived in London. I’m sure it helps.

This year, however, something else is going on.

Birds are appearing in ways that seem portentous.

For months they’ve been non-stop in and out of a small pond I made years ago that until recently they’d ignored.

Perhaps it’s the hot weather, I thought.

Then they’d hop around even when I was in clear sight – not just the always-bold robins, but blackbirds and parakeets, too.

(Yes, parakeets. It’s a London thing…)

Was it because of my Covid-19 self-isolation that I’m seeing all these birds? I wondered. Life had slowed. Perhaps I was paying more attention.

I was certainly paying attention when I heard a tapping on a window. I found a youthful magpie bashing at it with a stick. It seemed like the first time it had encountered glass.

That was odd enough, but behind it three other young magpies crashed about my garden like winged Marx brothers. I guessed they’d all just fledged, and were using my garden to get acquainted with the world. Fair enough, but I’d never seen such antics before.

A couple of weeks later I opened my front door and almost trod on a fledgling. It was chirping up at me, all two-inches of it standing where a few dozen delivery men have stood during lockdown.

I mildly panicked, and remembered back to my childhood in the provinces. Its parents will be around, I recalled from the vaults.

Sure enough there was a robin squawking ten feet away in a bush.

I decided the baby had to be moved – it was going to get stepped on here – so I ducked inside, put on some Marigolds, returned, and hunted about for a few minutes until I found it had hopped into a drain hole. I picked it up and moved it to the base of nearby hedge.

Later that evening I heard it and a parent communicating, and saw a robin with a beak-full of dinner. The next day all was quiet so I presume it had fledged and made good its escape.

Weird. I hadn’t seen a baby bird on the floor in London in 25 years.

This orgy of ornithological activity culminated yesterday evening with a second troupe of adolescent magpies crashing around my garden furniture, as comically as if they were charging for a show.

I don’t believe this is all a coincidence.

My hypothesis is the lockdown earlier in the year – that definitely cleared the air, and made climbing a nearby hill as invigorating as a hike over the South Downs – resulted, together with the hotter weather, in an explosion of insect life.

This, in turn, has fed far more baby birds than normal. More were then surviving to successfully fledge, like my punk-brained magpies, while competition for space pushed others to marginal real estate, such as that nest a few feet from my front door.

A quick Google doesn’t provide much to support my theory. I can’t see any stories about a comeback for songbirds or corvids.

Be nice though, wouldn’t it? Most British birds have been in decline for decades.

I’ll keep watching this space. And my back garden!